by
frowningstreet
@ 2006-11-15 - 10:33:06
From the Security Service (or MI5)
Security Service (MI5)
Current threat level
The current threat level is assessed as SEVERE (as of 14th August 2006).
This means that an attack is highly likely and indicates a continuing high level of threat to the UK.
So, the current threat level is 'SEVERE', and an 'attack' is 'highly likely'.
Whatever that means.
Well, at first blush, it would look like the meaning is obvious. After all, thats-what-it-says-on-the-tin ( TWISONT). So let's look at our tin a little...
Dr John Reid has designed the system.
THREAT LEVELS: THE SYSTEM TO ASSESS THE THREAT FROM INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM
Aha, it's for International Terrorism.
It's designed so 'so that people can go about their business freely and with confidence'.
So, how can the 'common man' find out what is the current threat level ? Well, MI5 reccomend you look at :
http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/
It's not immediately clear where on the site it is (not on the top-page), so try searching for 'threat level' in the 'quick search' panel. This eventually gives you a nice list of alternatives.
The first one that looks appropriate is :
Threat levels now on Home Office website The new threat level system has come into force, and can be found on the Home Office website.
This tells us to check the Home Office website regularly (new window) to find out the current threat level.
This tells us :
The current terrorism threat level is Severe .
What are threat levels? A new system has been created to keep the public informed about the level of threat to the UK from terrorism.
The system also helps the police and other law enforcement agencies determine how they should respond to, and prepare for a terrorist incident.
The threat levels are:
critical - an attack is expected imminently
severe - an attack is highly likely
substantial - an attack is a strong possibility
moderate - an attack is possible but not likely
low - an attack is unlikely
Now, it looks like it is about just a 'terrorist attack' rather than 'international terrorism'.
Is there a difference ? Probably not, so why not just refer to 'terrorism' , why make people confused ?
One thing is for sure : Confusion increases Fear.
Let's try to understand the 5-level scheme a little.
The system appears to tells us that an 'attack' may happen with increasing probability over some timeframe. But what are the probabilities and timeframes ?
I think it's reasonably to assume that 'highly likely' means at least 50%. If it meant any less, then 'no attack' would be 'more likely' than 'highly likely'. This wouldn't seem right. So lets call it 50%.
Now, step up to 'CRITICAL' , from 'SEVERE' and we get the phrase 'expected imminently'. Suddenly we have a 'timeframe' as well. What could this be ? Well certainly less than 5 years, as it would be another government's problem. But a day ? a week ? a month ?
It probably means something like >90% over 3 months, >80% over a month >70% over a week, and >50% over a day.
But it's so confusing. Ask a policeman to explain it to you. And if he cannot explain it clearly and succintly, then you should be worried.
Why mix probabilities and timeframes inconsistently in the system? It's confusing.
Three into Five
But it gets better, the 5 level threat system is tied to a 3 level response system -- and this tells us WHAT us done to respond to the threat level.
Levels 1 & 2 --- > Response NORMAL.
Level 3 & 4 ----> Response HEIGHTENED.
Level 5 ----> Response : EXCEPTIONAL
So to summarise : "Low and moderate means normal, Substantial and severe means heightened, and Critical means Exceptional"
Confusing isn't it ? And we still have little idea about what it really means.
Confusion increase FEAR.
The more you think about it, the more confusing it becomes.
For instance, given that the highest level is 'LEVEL 5: Critical : Attack imminent : Response Exceptional' , what do we say when we are UNDER ATTACK ?
Maybe the super-secret LEVEL 6 will be wheeled out.
Any offers anyone ?
Frankly, the reactions of our esteemed leaders ( when the 'liquid explosive' threat was unconvered ) seems to say it all :
Level 5 : 'Unimaginable' and 'Unprecedented'. ( Allegedly how Sir Ian Blair and Dr Reid described things).
Gosh. So our leaders cannot imagine what might have happened, and don't believe that anything like this has happened before ? 911 anyone ? World War II ? The recent Tsunami ?
But at least we know how the government feels.
Let's fill in the rest of the 5-level scale for us mere mortals :
Level 4 : 'Barely imaginable (but you can if you try) ' , 'Very rarely seen on TV'
Level 3: 'Easily imaginable' , 'Only seen after 9pm'
Level 2: 'Quite Normal' , 'As seen on TV'
Level 1:'Dull' , 'As seen on Childrens TV'
So there we have it. But don't forget that the role of terrorism is to 'create terror' and fear. Confusion increases fear. The best way is the traditional British way : Life carries on as normal. Don't let the b*ggers get you.
In next week's edition of 'Happily Married,Military Intelligence, and other Oxymorons', we will be looking at the difference between MI5 and MI6 entitled : 'Water under the bridge'.
Anyone (the first person) who knows WHICH bridge I am referring to wins an expenses paid holiday to Bombay.